IMLA predicts decline in gross mortgages

Gross mortgages will fall to £ 275bn this year from £ 304bn in 2021, according to the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) ‘The New Normal – perspectives for 2022 and 2023’ report.

The report observed that the remortgage market will be stronger in 2022, reaching £ 89 billion, up from £ 82 billion in 2021.

The IMLA predicts that gross rental loans (BTLs) will increase from £ 44.5bn in 2021 to £ 38bn in 2022 and £ 37bn in 2023.


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IMLA also said bond markets continue to signal that interest rates will remain historically low for the foreseeable future, with UK 50-year gilts yielding 1.0%, despite market expectations for rate hikes. short term.

Regarding distribution, intermediaries should remain the dominant channel, serving nearly 80% of the market.

While the IMLA has said it expects the middleman’s distribution share to decline very slightly in 2022 and 2023, it expects it to remain near record levels as well – just below 80% of advances. mortgage in value.

The IMLA also welcomed the decision of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) to consult on removing its stressed affordability requirements.

Kate Davies, Executive Director of IMLA, said: “2021 has been a very successful year for the mortgage market despite the difficult conditions created by the pandemic.

“Lenders have responded remarkably well to the challenges presented by COVID-19, especially given the operational pressures created by a time-limited stamp duty holiday.

“The IMLA estimates that gross mortgages in 2021 will reach £ 304 billion, the best performance since 2007, thanks to the stamp duty holiday and unprecedented budgetary and monetary support from the government.

“It should come as no surprise that 2022 is shaping up to be more moderate, especially with government support linked to COVID likely to end.

“Despite this, the mortgage market is well positioned to prosper over the coming year, and while interest rates may rise, mortgage rates will remain near all-time lows of 2021.

“We are also delighted to see that the dynamism and innovation of UK intermediaries continue to be reflected in the distribution share in the market, with 80% of the market now being served by this channel.

“However, until 2022, we will continue to push for a coherent, long-term government housing strategy, including the promised delivery of hundreds of thousands of new homes for a new generation of homeowners.

“Lenders will continue to develop and engage in programs to replace the purchase assistance program, which ends in 2023, and will thus continue to help first-time buyers achieve their dream of home ownership.” to the property. “

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